Click Run Full Analysis to generate the weekly signal. All data is fetched and computed automatically.
Starting analysis…
Current price
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Market regime
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Momentum
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Weekly close basis
Volatility
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Volume support
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Overhead supply
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Current signal
+1.0+0.50-0.5-1.0
Previous signal
Probabilistic estimates for context. The signal — not the forecast — drives the recommended action.
Regime
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regime
Volatility & momentum
Take-profit levels
TrendShield is a systematic strategy framework for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Leveraged ETFs carry significant risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Volume Structure Analysis
Live volume-weighted price levels — updated automatically on every Run Full Analysis.
Computing volume structure levels…
Volume Structure Chart
Click Refresh to compute live volume structure levels for the selected asset.
Track TQQQ and BITU as separate positions. Each card shows its own capital, entry price, live price and ROI.
Strategy Backtest
How the TrendShield strategy would have performed historically on real market data.
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End✕
This is a backtest, not a live track record.
Results replay the current strategy over historical data and are hypothetical — they benefit from hindsight and do not include trading costs, taxes, or slippage. These products are leveraged (TQQQ 3×, BITU 2×), so real drawdowns are severe. Past performance does not predict future results. Your live, forward-recorded signals are on the My Portfolio tab.
Click Run backtest to replay the strategy on real ${''} data.
Strategy vs. buy & hold
Trade log
Add position
Set up My Portfolio first
In-position analysis (hedge, take-profit and exit guidance) for
this asset unlocks once you’ve added the position in
My Portfolio. Please add your position and confirm you’re currently holding it —
until then the analysis stays in not-in-position mode.
Supabase setup required
Go to supabase.com → New project → copy your Project URL and anon public key
In the SQL editor run the setup script (click Copy SQL below) then paste & execute it
Paste your URL and key into the fields below and click Save config
Admin dashboard
Manage subscribers and monitor usage
Run Analysis — Unlimited (Admin)
Run the full signal engine with no weekly run limit. These runs are not counted against any subscriber quota and are not logged as subscriber usage.
Choose the asset and the position state to test any scenario (OUT, LONG, or HEDGED).
Output renders on the Signal Engine screen. Use the back arrow / sign-out to return to the admin dashboard.
QA / QC — Strategy Conformance
Two axes, per asset. Conformance — does the live signal engine match the backtest spec (same signal, regime, indicators)? Strategy viability — is the strategy still performing on recent real data vs its own track record (100% = healthy, lower = degrading, by degree)? Run it weekly and after every deploy.
Conformance history
No runs logged yet.
Recommended cadence: run weekly right after the new weekly bar posts (signals only change weekly), and after every deploy of the engine or backtester (to catch regressions). A monthly deeper review of the benchmark trend is also useful. Anything below 100% flags a live‑vs‑spec drift to investigate before it reaches subscribers.
Model Calibration
Fetches 10 years of live data from Yahoo Finance and recalibrates the probabilistic models. GARCH (alpha, beta, vol baseline) calibrated from daily closes (~2,500 bars). HMM softmax5 thresholds calibrated from weekly closes (~520 bars).
Results are saved to Supabase and applied automatically to all future signal runs.